Monthly Archive for September, 2009

Slim Pickens for the 2009 Christmas Season

Deb Purcell, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

Santa may not only be a bit stingy this year, he may also face challenges finding that special item on your Christmas list. While you may have been a very good boy or girl during 2009, retail choices have diminished with respect to the number of retail concepts, store locations, and available merchandise.

Say, for example, my Christmas list includes bath towels. Not just any bath towels, mind you. No, I really want a specific, high-end brand of really plush towels in a color that exactly matches the cheerful, yellow hue that the early morning sun casts across my bathroom wall. Last year options were plentiful. Large inventories led to deep discounts. Linens N Things announced store closures in October, which actually, albeit temporarily, added to the great values consumers could find during the prime holiday season. But, fast forward to Christmas shopping season 2009. No more Linens N Things. Other home décor retailers have shuttered stores, and those that haven’t have scaled back inventories, both selection and quantities, in anticipation of soft sales. Selection of high-end merchandise that carries the highest price tags and greatest risk will be especially curtailed.

It will be interesting to see how consumers cope with the lack of choices after having become accustomed to finding seemingly every conceivable option available to them in previous year. Until consumer risk tolerance improves and retailers follow suit, the décor in my home (including my towels) is gradually transitioning to classic, versatile, but bland shade of beige.

Cutting Through The Noise – The Value of Location Intelligence in Relevant Customer Communications

The September issue of the ABA Banking Journal includes an article titled “Cutting Through The Noise: Combine Location Intelligence With Account Data to be More Relevant” contributed by Hal Hopson, managing director, industry solutions for Pitney Bowes Business Insight. In this article, Hal highlights the role predictive analytics and location intelligence play in facilitating the creation of “targeted and personalized messages that grab and hold the customer’s interest.”

Hal first discusses the importance of analyzing customer behavior, arguing that marketers can and should leverage demographic and behavioral segmentation data associated with the customer’s geographic location to consumer discern age, income, stage of life, leisure activities, and shopping preferences. He also notes that marketers need to recognize the importance of convenience. The physical location of a branch matters to consumers when they are making their banking decisions, and savvy marketers should take that into account when defining their service offerings.

Hal concludes the article with a sample study summarizing the results of a Location-intelligent statistical model created to assess the likelihood of a given household to purchase a checking account, money market, time account, or home equity loan. The results demonstrate how marketers can harness the power of predictive analytics and location intelligence to narrow their universe of customers to those with the highest propensity to purchase specific service offerings. In doing so, marketers can significantly reduce their marketing spend by targeting their mailings to only those households, improving their baseline ROI. To view the full article, please visit the ABA Banking Journal.

The New Normal in Branch Activity

Brian Diepold, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

Among other effects, the current recession is likely to have an immediate and lasting impact on the branch deployment strategies in our industry. The immediate impact is fairly easy to predict. That is, net branch growth rate will decline significantly, most likely with some contraction over 2009 and 2010. But, what should we expect to see happen after the recession?

In the period just after past recessions, we have experienced a short-term spike in branch growth, likely due to some catch-up effects, followed by a return to the normal trend. It would be easy to assume that we could be in for the same kind of response after this recession.

But, I think there are several factors working against a return to the old patterns of branch growth. Most importantly, we have the ever-present alternative channel argument. While the maturing of remote banking may play a role in future branch growth, I believe that the dominant effect will be driven by overall residential development patterns.

If we look at the pockets of high branch growth over the past decade, much of the net new branches have logically followed the suburban development patterns. With every new McMansion development, branches followed to serve those communities. Unfortunately, many of those communities are being hit the hardest by the collapse of the real estate market. Prices are dropping much faster in the outer fringe development than they are in the urban core in many places. One could argue that these developments represent much of the excess inventory in the residential housing market today. As a result, it’s unlikely that we will see more of these developments popping up any time soon.

As the real estate market corrects itself, one of the numbers that is going back up is the percent of the population that rents instead of owning a home. Renters tend to reside closer in to the urban core in more densely populated parts of the market. Coincidentally, banks already have mature branch networks in these parts of the market. That is not to say there will be no new branches built, but simply that the decisions may move towards relocations, renovations, and need-based in-fill of the network, rather than continuing to grow with the residential development.

This is a unique recession, and as a result there will be unique events that unfold during the recovery period as well. One of them, I believe, is going to be a modest transformation of residential development patterns. We should see a move back towards more densely populated residential development. I don’t expect this to be a radical change, but as it changes on the margin, that should have an impact on where we look for new branch opportunities.

The result for branching is a new normal that probably doesn’t include a return to steady branch growth. There will be some branch growth, but I expect it to be more in line – finally – with household and population trends.

Unifying the Practices of Data Profiling, Integration, and Quality (dPIQ)

Pitney Bowes Business Insight and TDWI have joined forces to bring you this webinar by Phil Russom on unifying the practices of data profiling, integration, and quality (dPIQ):

Presenter:  Phil Russom
Date: October 13, 2009
Time: 12:00pm EDT
Location: Online

Data profiling, data integration, and data quality go together like bread, peanut butter, and jam, because all three address related issues in data assessment, acquisition, and improvement. Because they overlap and complement each other, the three are progressively practiced in tandem, often by the same team within the same data-driven initiative. Hence, there are good reasons and ample precedence for bringing the three related practices together. The result is an integrated practice for data profiling, integration, and quality (dPIQ).

You will Learn:

  • Relationships among the related dPIQ practices of data profiling, integration, and quality.
  • The iterations and cycles of dPIQ practices, and possible ways to align these.
  • Why you should tightly coordinate projects that involve the related dPIQ practices of data profiling, integration, and quality.
  • Ramifications for staffing, project management, and release cycles.

Register now!

Are There Limits to “Profiling” Your Customer ?

Gary Faitler, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

In the arena of retail site selection research, we have been a vigorous proponent of the need for customer profiling via segmentation. Our approach has emphasized the bucketing of customers into distinct segments, reflective of differing levels of customer engagement and spend. This segmentation, based on variable demographic, behavioral and psychographic characteristics, ferrets out your most productive customers (i.e. the 10% that generate 40% of sales) and equally important, identifies your least productive. Understanding who these customers are, and where they are concentrated geographically is one of the pillars supporting an effective retail business, as it contributes to critical decisions ranging from store site location (or retrenchment) to the prioritization of investment in marketing dollars.

Pitney Bowes Business Insight has also pioneered the concept of “effective population” in which the segmentation profile becomes the means of adjusting actual population to create a foundational construct, influenced by shopping behavior. This allows us, in one quantitative statistic, to wed the variables of mass and profile. The approach has been extremely useful in rationalizing distance decay patterns across divergent segments.

We have noted recently, however, that a number of our clients are pursuing a “silver bullet” in their approach to customer profiling. We suspect that, as a result of the difficult times confronting retail generally, decision makers have turned to new market research professionals, hoping to ensure the best approach for optimizing sales in a climate of “down” markets. For some of our clients, these professionals, who tend not to think spatially, may, at times, be fostering an inflated view of customer profile – possibly to the exclusion of other real estate fundamentals. As noted above, we view segmentation as one of the pillars supporting effective retail execution and site selection, but others are equally critical.

As champions of the concept of segmentation and customer profiling, we must also emphasize its appropriate use. The importance of customer profiling is variable based on the level of differentiation of the customer. For example, a high-end purveyor of fitness and athletic equipment would represent an extremely segmented profile, while a ubiquitous quick service restaurant would represent an equally extreme non-segmented profile. Both concepts, in the end, would be highly dependant on what we call the fundamentals of sound real estate site selection: convenience to critical population mass, retail synergy and visibility/market exposure. However, for the highly segmented concept, any application would additionally be extremely sensitized to store positioning vis-à-vis the most in-profile customer base.

For some of our retail and restaurant clients that have mass appeal (i.e. minimal differentiation within the customer base), we have recently observed exaggerated expectations from the customer profile. They appear fixated on deriving some insight into their customer base that will drive a deeper penetration than realized to date. As much as we’d like to glean from their customer data some new profile-driven formula for uncovering optimal store placement, in these instances, it is primarily the real estate fundamentals, on which we have traditionally focused, that remain the best predictors of sales potential.

It may be helpful for marketers to think of the brick and mortar unit as a “touch point” itself, with physical convenience and outstanding execution the unique features driving customer response.

[More insights on site selection research from our Predictive Analytic consultants].

Cash for Clunkers Promotions…Who Else Might Benefit?

Deb Purcell, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

Last month, the U.S. government completed its controversial “cash for clunkers” program to stimulate demand for new cars. The program offered significant rebates to consumers who traded in their current automobiles and purchased more fuel efficient models. While the jury is still out on the net effect of the program to taxpayers and the efficiency with which it was implemented, the positive impact on top-line auto sales cannot be denied. The government recently announced a similar though less robust rebate program to stimulate major appliance sales. Consumers can receive a rebate check for up to $200, though the program does not require a trade in.

As retailers come off of a lackluster back-to-school season and face continued consumer skittishness going into the holidays, I wonder whether retailers and manufacturers could stimulate sales by offering their own cash for clunkers programs. Meaningful discounts on merchandise through limited-time offers designed to stimulate holiday purchases could woo customers into stores and to the cash registers. Think Ski Swap on Steroids. Assuming the “clunkers” are put to good use, such programs could also appeal to consumers’ continued interest in going green (i.e., recycle and reuse) and supporting those less fortunate during these troubled times through charitable giving. By emptying their garages, basements and closets of outdated items, consumers may give themselves permission to replace them with smart, well-timed purchases of upgraded merchandise they both need and want.

PBBI Client Grocery Outlets is “Leading the Pack”

The August edition of Grocery Headquarters featured an article by Freelancer Deena Amato-McCoy on grocery retailers that are using IT/software solutions in innovative ways. This article is an annual feature on the industry’s IT leaders, and it highlights the way grocery retailers are using technology to help them “stand out from the crowd in terms of customer service, productivity and, ultimately, profitability.”

Mark Drasin, vice president of real estate at Grocery Outlets, contributes valuable insight and some hard ROI arguing that PBBI’s Predictive Analytic solutions have enabled Grocery Outlets to “sharply reduce its cannibalization rate and contributed to a 40% sales increase over the past four years.”

Also highlighted in the article are discussions with Al Beery and Shawn McDonald, Practice Leaders in Predictive Analytics for Pitney Bowes Business Insight, on the benefits of PBBI’s solution MarketPulse. They argue that retailers should take into consideration macroeconomic trend data, such as bankruptcies, foreclosures, building permit trends, changes in demographic income and unemployment rates, to help them better understand their target markets.

To read more about Grocery Outlets and their use of PBBI’s Predictive Analytic solutions, visit http://groceryheadquarters.com/articles/2009-08-01/Leading-the-pack.

Recommendations from PBBI’s Predictive Analytic Practice Leaders

The July edition of Response Magazine features an article by Al Beery and Brian Hill, Practice Leaders in Predictive Analytics for Pitney Bowes Business Insight, on the importance of companies gaining a better understanding of their target customers to enhance their marketing campaigns. The resulting article highlights the benefits of location intelligence through the use of demographic, psychographic and macroeconomic data to help companies make smarter, more strategic decisions.

For more on the recommendations from our Predictive Analytic experts, visit Response Magazine.

Response Magazine is a monthly publication geared toward professionals involved in all facets of direct response marketing (circulation: 18,626)

When two worlds collide

Steve Seabury, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

While the 2010 U.S. Census is still months away, a recent advance in data analytics demonstrates how amazing things can happen when customer and location intelligence comes together.

For years, real estate specialists and strategic planners have relied on spatial analysis to make decisions that required significant investments. The power of location intelligence proved invaluable on many fronts. The stability of neighborhood demographics enabled decision-makers to hone in on trends that could impact long-term profitability. The precise nature of geocoding provided for year-over-year consistency. Plus, the ability to visualize and map customers, prospects and competition against existing and planned sites led to key insights… insights that have enabled banks, retailers, utilities and many other industry executives to exceed expectations.

At the other end of the spectrum, marketers turned to household segmentation models. Robust demographic data at the household level could be used to create clusters—segments of consumers who shared similar lifestyles, characteristics and needs. This lifecycle approach made it easy to target the ‘retired affluent’, ‘young families’, ‘single post-grads’ and dozens of other key markets. And with records updated quarterly (or even more frequently), marketers could respond quickly to life events.

Now for the first time, these distinct approaches have been combined to deliver enhanced network performance management and customer analytics solutions. Using deeper, more precise demographic data, organizations can make more informed and timely decisions about critical real estate and marketing initiatives. These next generation demographic data tools incorporate advantages from both disciplines and can help organizations overcome today’s top challenges, for example:

  • Enables marketers and strategic planers to work from the same platform
  • Compares changes in household make-up with neighborhood shifts to uncover pockets of opportunity
  • Normalizes household data to block out the noise of short-term events to create more accurate projections
  • Eliminates the need for ZIP Code targeting, which rarely reflect true neighborhood and lifecycle segments
  • Links store network performance with customer relationship management strategies

Of course, creating the best of both worlds requires you to start with the best in both worlds. That’s why Pitney Bowes Business Insight teamed up with the Gadberry Group and Acxiom® Corporation and their PersonicX® segmentation system.

These data sources compile consumer data from over 100 sources, including public records, the U.S. Census and self-reported data. Measurements for accuracy and completeness are part of a sophisticated multi-source build process where individual data attributes are compared across multiple providers. While mapping and analytic tools previously dealt with neighborhood and block-level data, these new tools drill down to race, ethnicity, gender, education, marital status, occupation, income and lifecycle on an individual household level.

In many ways, incorporating Gadberry and Acxiom data into PBBI predictive analytics models will enable organizations to bridge the gap between real estate decision-making and marketing strategy – incorporating the best of both.

For more information on the newest technologies, visit us at http://go.pbinsight.com/household-derived-demographics.

Lenders contend with alphabet mandate

By Ellen Hannigan

UDAP. Reg Z. DD. Regulation E.

Federal and state regulations are nothing new for financial services firms. This year, however, lenders must content with a series of sweeping changes that will impact nearly every customer communication, from applications and marketing materials to disclosures and monthly statements.

With compliance deadlines looming, operations heads are still dealing with budget cuts and the lack of staff resources they’ve been handed as a result of the economy – and now must come up with a cost-effective plan to implement substantial changes to document content.

To address consumer confusion, lenders will need to modify documents generated by a host of legacy and one-off applications, incorporate more variable content and do so in a systematic, automated way. Already, some market leaders have adopted best practices in document composition, implementing effective software solutions that make it easy to create, manage and deliver updated communications with greater control and flexibility.

Print stream engineering and on-demand document creation have become the new must-have capabilities for managers looking to step up the new compliance demands. With these tools, operations heads can handle changes in form design and content with word processing ease—customizing messages customer by customer. These software technologies do not require coding changes to your underlying legacy systems—often one of the biggest obstacles to document changes—and provide a centralized mechanism for executing compliance mandates so output can easily be formatted to support both print and electronic channels.

To learn more about these regulatory changes, the documents affected and how banks are responding in the most cost-efficient manner visit the Pitney Bowes Business Insight Financial Services regulations resource center today.