Deb Purcell, Pitney Bowes Business Insight
My name is Deb, and I am a Black Friday shopper. At one time perhaps I would have been ashamed to admit this condition, but not today. For several years, I have braved cold weather on far too little sleep and far too much caffeine in search of the best deals. Wow, what deals! Cameras, laptops, and MP3 players for my teenagers, a leather jacket for my husband, and a few goodies for myself all purchased at a fraction of their normal cost. In fact, the hunt has become a family tradition. We scour the inserts over pumpkin pie to develop our shopping strategy.
With Thanksgiving around the corner, I am beginning to contemplate Black Friday 2009. The biggest question on my mind: is it worth it this year? As an industry professional, I am aware that retailers have reduced inventories in hopes of avoiding deep discounts that will cut into profits on an already limited revenue base. I know merchandise is already aggressively priced, and retailers have begun advertising early under the assumption that consumers are carefully planning their holiday shopping in advance to avoid overspending, particularly on impulse purchases using credit.
As a consumer, I also know the recipients of my gifts are not expecting much this year. Ours is not the only extended family to scale back our party venue and emphasize the importance of sharing each other’s company rather than the token presents that really seemed to escalate over the years. With a few members out of work or on the edge, I would be embarrassed to show up with bags full of frivolous goodies this year. Three major consumer shopping trends this year have been well publicized: make personalized gifts instead of buying expensive items, give a single gift to be shared among a group or family rather than individual items, and purchase what must be bought well in advance, with cash. Where does Black Friday fit into these trends, especially as consumers appear to now really understand the difference between must have and want to have?
Don’t get me wrong. I am not forecasting doom and gloom for retail sales this holiday season. Compared to the shockwaves of uncertainty that rippled through the markets in 2008, I believe there will be few surprises this year, and retail sales will come in pretty close to conservative industry expectations. I just don’t know how important the Friday after Thanksgiving will be in the whole equation. If I’m not planning to buy many items, then I am not really going to save very much through the discounts. Sleeping in is beginning to sound pretty nice. But then again, I may really miss the adrenaline rush, the thrill of the hunt….ask me again on November 30th.
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