Monthly Archive for February, 2010

Lender Research: Show Me the Money

by Eric J. Steckling, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

Pitney Bowes Business Insight has seen a recent increase in interest by lenders to perform analytical research on real estate for which they are considering lending money. This analysis typically involves a determination of the concept’s fit with the surrounding customers, site characteristics, competition, and market strength. The increased emphasis on research reflects a riskier market for retailers/restaurants and associated need for prudence on behalf of lenders, many of whom have seen substantially elevated levels of defaults in the past several years.

Historically, the lending community has focused on past success of the borrower in determining whether to lend. Current market conditions dictate the need for greater diligence to understand not just the concept’s attractiveness or the borrower’s creditworthiness, but the viability of the specific proposed site to successfully support the concept. That is, the ability of a retailer or restaurant owner to repay a commercial loan is directly tied to the quality of the real estate, considering how location impacts sales performance. The most critical assumption a lender will make is the gross sales for the proposed location.

Varying degrees of sophistication exist in forecasting sales for proposed sites, often they are dependent on the availability of comparative data. The more robust the data, the higher the confidence can be. Generally, the research and associated data should address key questions, such as:

1. Is the site located near its core customers?
2. How competitive is the market?
3. What is the strength of the concept-is it well understood by market consumers?
4. How favorable are the characteristics of the specific site?
5. How far will consumers drive to reach the site/concept?
6. What is the market size?
7. What factors drive sales for the concept?
8. Are there negative external factors that will limit sales?
9. Are there nearby retailer/restaurants that will create synergy?
10. How will traffic patterns affect patronage?

Ideally, a proposed retail or restaurant operator will have current sales evidence from proximate sister stores which provide a basis for new sales forecasts. Macroscopic analysis can be used to compare the site to a “chain average” metric, which can give a general feeling if the site is above or below the benchmarks set by existing units. When existing unit performance is not available, in-depth market and site specific research is required to develop an understanding of the site’s potential – and potential pitfalls.

While lenders have always examined the character of the borrower and the soundness of the business model, they are now adding scrutiny to the location of the business. After all, it is the revenue generated by the business, not the integrity of the borrower that will repay the loan.

Outlook 2010: Chain Store Age Interviews Pitney Bowes Business Insight Experts

Katherine Field from Chain Store Age recently interviewed experts from Pitney Bowes Business Insight.

With expansion slowing, the buzz word for 2010 is “optimization.”

In the February issue (“Focus on Site Selection Trends,”), I talked with a panel of retail real-estate experts to explore just what to expect in a year that has all the markings of a transition period of economic ups and downs.

My panel of experts all predicted that site optimization — making the most of existing real estate — rather than new store growth would be the retail game plan for 2010.

Recently, I also talked with a trio of executives from Troy, N.Y.-based Pitney Bowes Business Insight about the state of retail real estate in 2010. This is what they had to say: <!–more–>

Spotlight on New Orleans: The Crescent City, Five Years Later

Kyle Bingham, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

This month, I was in New Orleans, analyzing several sites for a large retail client. The last time I was in the Crescent City was five years ago – just a mere four months after Hurricane Katrina hit. I was both excited and anxious to see how the city had changed. I had many questions on my mind as I left Louis Armstrong International Airport in my rental car: at what level were the most impacted neighborhoods coming back? What shape was the infrastructure in? What retail was operating in these areas?

My fieldwork took me to many of the neighborhoods that, five years ago, were completely under water. West of City Park, neighborhoods like Lakeview and Lakeshore showed positive signs of recovery; however, the rebuilding efforts were sporadic and entire blocks remained unoccupied. It was strange to see homes with fresh paint and new roofs next to boarded up homes that still bore the spray-paint markings of post-Katrina rescue teams. The current state of the roads in these neighborhoods was also unexpected. The hurricane and subsequent years of neglect had taken their toll. I was constantly on the lookout for potholes and saw large depressions in the road that were the size of Volkswagen Beetles. While it was clear that, with the help of U.S. federal stimulus dollars, a concerted effort was being made to improve the major thoroughfares, both my rental car and I agree there is still a lot of road work that needs to be done.

The retail landscape was also a mix of redevelopment and vacancy. The retail sector in which I saw the most redevelopment was pharmacies/convenience stores. Walgreens dominated the landscape, with newer/redeveloped units in Lakeview, Mid-City, and Gentilly Terrace. Though not a new development, local and quick-service restaurants also seemed to be making a comeback. Clearly, the winners in the post-Katrina rebuilding efforts are the home-improvement centers. The Home Depot, for example, still operates two smaller, non-prototype units that were opened as a result of the hurricane. In both Chalmette and East New Orleans, Lowe’s and The Home Depot have units within a half mile of one another – in Chalmette, they even have adjacent parking lots. It was in Chalmette – in St. Bernard Parish, that the recovery has been the slowest, evident from the empty parking lots and the lack of other national chains. The return of retail to these areas has been clearly affected by the economy and by the uncertainty of the population return. The latest estimates show that the return of residents is slowing down, with population levels still below pre-Katrina numbers in many neighborhoods.

As I drove through the Lower 9th Ward, I noticed a sign installed by the city that stated the recovery efforts were underway in that area; underneath, in spray paint, someone had scrawled “Five years later!” Its clear things aren’t happening as fast as many had hoped they would, but as those who have visited know, the city’s residents are very proud of their culture, extremely resilient, and determined to rebuild. My trip was right before the Super Bowl, a mayoral race, and Mardi Gras, all three of which dominated the conversations I heard from the French Market to the Garden District. Now that the Saints have won and Fat Tuesday is upon us, there is a lot to celebrate, but a lot of work to still be done.

Positive Retail Comp Sales – A Good Sign? It is All Relative

Ed Borden, Pitney Bowes Business Insight

The monthly reports of retail year-over-year comp (comparable sales) is often viewed a strong sign of the health of retailers; however, the recent positive gains are being plotted against the sales performance of 2009 — not a banner year for retail sales. While the January-over-January gain of 4.7% is an encouraging sign that the industry is recovering, the sales remain significantly lower than the volumes of even two years. As quoted from blog article Retail Sales Advance the “Year-over-year numbers, though, often tell you as much about conditions a year ago as they say about current conditions.”

Like the Retail Sales Advance article discusses, PBBI has also directly witnessed through our retail and restaurant client relationships that change sales comp numbers without historic context can be misleading. Moreover, the shape and size of this retail recovery is not being share equally among all retailers or even amongst all retailers in the same retail specialties (e.g., home improvement, electronics, and apparel).

The graphs below depict the national historic trends in total retail sales, and consumer confidence and sentiment. Naturally there is a link between the consumers’ spending and the consumers’ feelings towards spending — the peaks and valleys generally follow the same trend. Even though none of the information provided in the charts is all that new, the graphical representation of this information clearly shows just how hard this recession has affected retailers. So when you hear great news about the retail sales recovery, just know it is all relative.

US Retail Sales

US Retail Sales

Consumer Confidence and Sentiment

Consumer Confidence and Sentiment

Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales

Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales