by Eric J. Steckling, Pitney Bowes Business Insight
Pitney Bowes Business Insight has seen a recent increase in interest by lenders to perform analytical research on real estate for which they are considering lending money. This analysis typically involves a determination of the concept’s fit with the surrounding customers, site characteristics, competition, and market strength. The increased emphasis on research reflects a riskier market for retailers/restaurants and associated need for prudence on behalf of lenders, many of whom have seen substantially elevated levels of defaults in the past several years.
Historically, the lending community has focused on past success of the borrower in determining whether to lend. Current market conditions dictate the need for greater diligence to understand not just the concept’s attractiveness or the borrower’s creditworthiness, but the viability of the specific proposed site to successfully support the concept. That is, the ability of a retailer or restaurant owner to repay a commercial loan is directly tied to the quality of the real estate, considering how location impacts sales performance. The most critical assumption a lender will make is the gross sales for the proposed location.
Varying degrees of sophistication exist in forecasting sales for proposed sites, often they are dependent on the availability of comparative data. The more robust the data, the higher the confidence can be. Generally, the research and associated data should address key questions, such as:
1. Is the site located near its core customers?
2. How competitive is the market?
3. What is the strength of the concept-is it well understood by market consumers?
4. How favorable are the characteristics of the specific site?
5. How far will consumers drive to reach the site/concept?
6. What is the market size?
7. What factors drive sales for the concept?
8. Are there negative external factors that will limit sales?
9. Are there nearby retailer/restaurants that will create synergy?
10. How will traffic patterns affect patronage?
Ideally, a proposed retail or restaurant operator will have current sales evidence from proximate sister stores which provide a basis for new sales forecasts. Macroscopic analysis can be used to compare the site to a “chain average” metric, which can give a general feeling if the site is above or below the benchmarks set by existing units. When existing unit performance is not available, in-depth market and site specific research is required to develop an understanding of the site’s potential – and potential pitfalls.
While lenders have always examined the character of the borrower and the soundness of the business model, they are now adding scrutiny to the location of the business. After all, it is the revenue generated by the business, not the integrity of the borrower that will repay the loan.




