Kyle Bingham, Pitney Bowes Business Insight
Economists look at a variety of sources for indications of economic recovery – sources like national statistics on unemployment filings and consumer confidence scores. Lately, local indicators have been catching my attention. I live in a small town of 4,000 in the state of Michigan, a state which has the highest state unemployment rate in the country. Since 2007, four homes on my street have gone into foreclosure, but in the last year, all four of those properties have been sold. Although the sale prices of those homes are significantly lower than their values 3 years ago, the sales themselves may signal that the overall supply of foreclosures is decreasing. But while some local indicators are signaling economic improvement, others are showing that the economy is still struggling.
Local indicators abound. Recently, I took my vehicle in to get fixed at my automotive repair shop. When I quizzed the repairmen about business, they said it couldn’t be better. In the recession, it seems people are holding onto their vehicles longer to avoid high car payments, which translates into more trips to the shop for repairs.
Here’s an odd economic indicator: according to my uncle, a hearse driver in the central Wisconsin town in which I grew up, business is down because more people are opting for cremation, a cheaper alternative to burial.
Time magazine had an article that highlighted some odd economic indicators, like the increase in hikers on the Appalachian Trail. An article in Kiplinger.com took another amusing spin on economic signals, with 10 unique indicators to watch during the recession. I had no idea that, in some areas, the increase in bug bites may be attributed to the recession! A recent article in The Wall Street Journal cited an economist in San Francisco who can gauge the local economy by examining passenger tallies from the transit system near the Union Square shopping district.
Obviously, it is more relatable to talk about indicators at the local level, but what is interesting is that we don’t hear about these so-called indicators when the economy is doing well. Maybe in good economic times, people are too busy making money to notice. While it is fun to debate the local economic drivers, it is also important to follow the traditional market indicators. Pitney Bowes Business Insight has developed its own product, called MarketPulse, which correlates economic indicators with market-by-market sales performance of retailers and other operators.
What indicators are you seeing as both positive and negative? traditional in nature and more unique? Is your barber cutting more haircuts? Are there more moving vans at the local truck rental (more people moving into town than leaving)? How are sales at the local gift shop? Did your Girl Scout troop sell more or fewer cookies this year? Are parking tickets up or down in your town? Hopefully, all the signs point to an economy in recovery. Whether they get back to pre-recession levels, though, is fodder for another blog post.







